India – The Stabilizing Factor

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Yesterday it dawned on me just how ignorant I have become on World Affairs.  I glance at two two papers daily and still I was clueless to the key isssues brewing on the global stage.  What precipitated this realization was an event that I attended yesterday featuring Indian Foreign Secretary Rao and Ambassador Nicholas Burns.    Ambassador Burns served in the United States Foreign Service for twenty-seven years until his retirement in April 2008.    You will recall Nicholas Burns as he was pivotal in brokering the civil nuclear deal between the US and India.  It was a great achievement for both countries.

The event hosted by the Aspen Group and the Center  for New American Security on “The United States and India:  Charting the Future Course” was eye opening.     Charting, a phrase that is clearly borrowed from the technology world,  a 3.0 Approach.    A very fine speech was given by Secretary Rao underlining India’s position on key international issues to open the discussion.   The debating panel was excellent and the I honestly did not expect such an open and frank dialogue in front of 200 or so invited guests. 

India is the second fastest growing economy in the world.  With growth pegged at 7.9% in 3Q/2009 and 7% in 4Q/2009  – it is just not good enough.  Why you ask?   As her Excellency elaborated, that to meet the developmental goals of the country – meaning to get India out of poverty – a sustained growth rate of 8 -9 % at a minimum is required.   There are three main drivers that will be required to achieve these lofty targets:   (1) more capital inflow, (2) technical and innovation and (3) free open world trade.  I do hope that in the next few years we will see more positive developments in these spheres.     It was clear from the US, that supporting a  stable and strong India was in its best interest since this is what was needed to balance China and sustain peace and order in the East.

Being that I grew up in the United States, am Indian Born and have been living in India for the last year or so – I do truly believe that I was sympathetic to both sides.  The US ofcourse forcefully trying to push down its agenda with her Excellency , MS Rao, rebutting back quite clearly on the Indian Agenda.    From what I gathered there are three key areas of difference between the two largest democracies:

• Climate Change/Carbon Emmissions
• Trade
• The Iran Issue

 It was good to see that India was not bowing down, clearly articulating its understanding of the region, the key conflicts and ofcourse pressing forward the needs of the day.  It is clear that both sides have no option but to learn to work with each other.   Both sides clearly acknowledging that cooperation is necessary to achieve their visions.   And at times the need to agree to disagree – and that is no way implyies that the countries do not have a strong desire to work with each other.  This was probably the most mature statement of the day.  Just because we do not agree on everyting – does not mean that we are not friends.

Most of the discussion centered around technology and innovation.  And in particular the need for civil nuclear technology to meet the growing needs of India and military innovation.    “Nuclear technology is green technology.”  It also dawned on me – just how important the civil nuclear deal is for India.     If India and other developing countries are going to reduce carbon emissions as per the plans in the Climate Change talks in Copenhagen – a nuclear approach is required. 

Most evolved  nations are moving to Nuclear energy –  over 78% of the power in France – is from nuclear, produced from 58 plants.   And from what I understand China has many many nuclear plants under development.    China has 11 nuclear power reactors in commercial operation, 20 under construction, and more about to start construction soon.    Hence to withhold such a critical technology from any country in the world –  is really not fair.    Especially such a stance coming from the US which is placing such an emphasis on green technology.  It is heartwarming to see India in the list of nations that will get such access.  It is not only pivotal to the growth but also a sign of the emerging power that India is.     The question of Iran and its access to nuclear technology, now, was far more debatable.

It is just my guess that some change on the military front are also on the way – since there were many US defense contractors sitting at the tables besides me.   My guess is that soon there will also be increased access by the US to military technology to India.   India is precariously perched – with increasing tensions in Burma, an unresolved border with China and the issue of Pakistan.   We are surrounded by instability it seems more and more evident – that a strong and stable India is necessary for peace in the region.     Maybe the US will also see India as a true ally in the region and ensure that we have access to the best technology in the military capacity.  There was much talk about cooperation in the naval field.

As said by Tarun Das,  the countries are just beginning to trust one another.   And trust takes time so we have a long way to go.  But it is clear that India has a pivotal role to play in the new emerging world order.